Sustainable Energy for 9 Billion

Over the next 25 years, frontline workers, technicians, engineers, scientists, and investors need to build or invest in products and goods that not only support net-zero emission goals but also keep pace with the growing energy consumption driven by population growth, which is expected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050. Energy demand is directly correlated with improvements in living standards. As an electrical engineer by training, I was drawn to explore energy demand from first principles and examine the government initiatives in place to make significant efforts to offer solutions, services, and incentives. Here’s what I’ve learned about this topic:

1. Drivers of Global Energy Demand

• Population growth (Population of the world as of 9/2024: 8.1B, 12/2050: 9.6B)

• Economic development and industrialization (GDP of the World as of 9/2024 : ~$110T USD)

• Urbanization and infrastructure needs (More housing, hospitals, schools, etc.)

• Technological advancements (AI, cryptocurrency)

• Government incentives: "Inflation Reduction Act" in the USA, "Five-year Plans" in China, "Fit for 55" and "European Green Deal" by European Union

  
  

2. Sources of Carbon Emissions

• Energy production (coal, oil, natural gas, solar, etc) (As of 2023: ~180 TWh)

• Transportation (road, air, sea) (As of 2023: ~27 GtCO2/Yr)

• Industry (manufacturing, construction, etc) (As of 2020: 27% of total emission/year)

• Agriculture (deforestation, livestock) (As of 2020: 10% of total emission/year)

• Residential and commercial energy use (As of 2020: 17% of total emission/year)

  
  

3. Technologies for Sustainable Energy

• Renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal)

• Energy storage (batteries, hydrogen)

• Carbon capture and storage (Pre/Post/Oxy-Combustion)

• Nuclear energy (Fission, Fusion)

• Energy efficiency improvements (smart grids, virtual power plants, etc.)

  
  

4. Constraints on Large-Scale Deployment

• Economic barriers (cost of technology, financing)

• Infrastructure limitations (grid capacity, storage)

• Political challenges (international cooperation, policy differences between countries, states, and regions)

• Environmental impacts (land use, biodiversity)

• Social challenges (public acceptance, job transition for fossil fuel workers)

  
  

5. Modeling Pathways for Energy Transition

• Energy demand forecasting (Explore regional and sectoral trends)

• Emissions trajectories (Build models to estimate future emissions)

• Cost modeling (Estimate the cost-effectiveness of various sustainable energy technologies)

• Policy simulation (Examine the potential impacts of policy interventions like carbon taxes, subsidies)

  
  

6. Economics of Change

• Investment in renewable infrastructure

• Economic impacts on different sectors

• Job creation vs. loss in the fossil fuel industry

• Cost of inaction on climate change vs. cost of transition